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梁建章:中国城市的人口黑洞 生育率比想象中更低

efax868.com 编辑:婧宸  2020年01月08日 14:37  来源:梁建章头条号  
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伯爵彩票APPZAIDUODERENKOUYEHUIBEIDISHENGYULVHEIDONGTUNSHI,ZUIHOUDAOZHIWENMINGDESHUAIWANG。 GENJU2018NIANCHUSHENGRENKOUTUISUAN,ZHONGGUOMUQIANDESHENGYULVDAGAIZAI1.46ZUOYOU,YEJIUSHIPINGJUNMEIGEFUNVSHENG1.46GEXIAOHAI,YUANYUANBUDAO2.1ZUOYOUDEGENGTISHUIPING。YOUWEIZHIDEYITIDESHI,ZHEIGESHENGYULVHENDAYIBUFENLAIZIQUANMIANERHAIZHENGCEDAILAIDESHENGYUDUIJI,YEJIUSHIZAIZUIJINLIANGSANNIANLI,KUAYUEDUOGENIANLINGDUANDEHENDUOYULINGFUNVJIZHONGSHIFANGGUOQUSHOUDAOZHENGCEXIANZHIDESHENGYUYIYUAN。

ZHEIGEPANDUANKEYICONG2018NIANDEXINCHUSHENGRENKOUZHONG,ERHAISHULIANGDUOYUYIHAIDEXIANXIANGDEDAOYINZHENG。YOUYUSHENGYUYIHAIHOUCAINENGSHENGYUERHAI,SUOYIWENDINGQINGKUANGXIA,ERHAISHULIANGHUISHAOYUYIHAI。ERQIEANMUQIANDESHENGYUYIYUAN,YOULEYIHAIDEMUQINZHONGDAGAIZHIYOUYIBANHUISHENGYUERHAI。SUOYIZAIZANSHIXINGDEDUIJIFANDANQUYUJIESHUZHIHOU,WEILAIDEERHAIRENSHUHENYOUWANGJIANBAN,ZHISHISHENGYULVKENENGJIANGZHI1.2YIXIA。

中国生育率排名——比想象更低

伯爵彩票APPNEIME,ZHONGGUODESHENGYULVZAIQUANQIUYOUHUIPAIZAISHENMEWEIZHINI?2016NIAN,GENJUSHIJIEYINXINGDESHUJU,ZAIQUANQIULIANGBAIDUOGEGUOJIAHEDIQUZHONG,ZHIYOU13GEGUOJIADESHENGYULVDIYU1.4,ZHIYOUHANGUOHEXINJIAPOLIANGGEGUOJIADESHUJUDIYU1.2。RIBENZHANGQISHIQUANQIUSHENGYULVZUIDIDEGUOJIAZHIYI,DANZUIJINJINIANDALIGULISHENGYUDELIDU,YIJINGJIANGSHENGYULVTISHENGDAO1.45。XIANGBIZHIXIA,OUZHOUDEPINGJUNSHENGYULVSHI1.6,MEIGUODESHENGYULVSHI1.88ZUOYOU。

YOUYUQUANMIANERHAIDAILAIDEDUIJIFANDANYINSU,ZHONGGUOMUQIANSHENGYULVZANSHIHAIBUSHISHIJIEZUIDI,DANZHANGQILAIKAN,ZHONGGUODISHENGYULVWENTIHUISHISHIJIEZHIZUI。ZHEISHIYINWEIZAIZHONGGUO,CHENGSHIJUMINHEGAOXUELIRENQUNDESHENGYULVBIQITAGUOJIAYAODIDEDUO。DUIYURENHEYIGEGONGYEHUAGUOJIALAISHUO,CHENGSHIRENKOUHEGAOXUELIRENKOUDOUSHISHEHUICAIFUDEZHUYAOCHUANGZAOZHE,YESHIWEILAISHENGHUOFANGSHIDEYINLINGZHE。SUIZHEZHONGGUOJINYIBUCHENGSHIHUAHEJIAOYUSHUIPINGDETISHENG,RUGUOBUCAIQUCUOSHIDEHUA,ZHONGGUODESHENGYULVDAGAILVHUIDIEZHISHIJIEZUIDISHUIPING。

ZHIDEYITIDESHI,GENJU2010NIANRENKOUPUCHASHUJU,ZHONGGUO2010NIANDEQUANGUOSHENGYULVWEI1.18。YOUYUPUCHANIANFENDESHENGYULVYOUPIANDIDEQINGXIANG,DANGSHIDEZHENSHISHENGYULVHUOXUHUILVEGAOYUSHUJUXIANSHIDESHUIPING。BUGUO,RUWOMENQIANMIANSUOFENXI,SUIZHEQUANMIANERHAIDUIJISHENGYUSHIFANGWANBI,ZHONGGUODEZIRANSHENGYULVHENKENENGHUIDIYU1.2DE。YEJIUSHISHUO,JINGUAN1.18DESHUJUWEIBINENGZHENSHIFANYING2000NIANDESHENGYULVSHUIPING,DANQUEKENENGSHIHEYUHENGLIANGMUQIANZHONGGUODEZIRANSHENGYULV,QIBEIJINGSHIMUQIANSHENGYUZHULI90HOUDESHENGYUYIYUANXIANZHUDIYU2010NIANQIANHOUSHENGYUZHULIDE80HOU。JIYUZHEIDIAN,WOMENZAIXIAMIANDEFENXIZHONGCAINA2010NIANRENKOUPUCHASHUJULAIFANYINGZHONGGUOMUQIANBUTONGRENQUNDESHENGYUZHUANGTAI。

城市化与受教育水平趋势——未来中国生育率将世界垫底

伯爵彩票APPRUBIAO1SUOSHI,BEIJINGDESHENGYULVWEI0.71,ERSHANGHAIDESHENGYULVYEJINYOU0.74。BUJINYUANYUANDIYUOUMEIDEDACHENGSHIRUNIUYUEHELUNDUN,YEDIYURIHANDEDACHENGSHIRUDONGJINGHESHOUER。ZHONGGUOERXIANCHENGSHIDESHENGYULVSUIRANLVEGAOYUYIXIANCHENGSHI,DANYEBUDAO1.0。LIRU,TIANJINSHI2010NIANSHENGYULVJINYOU0.91,SHENYANGSHI2013NIANSHENGYULVJINYOU0.89。

CHULECHENGSHIHUASHUIPINGZHIWAI,ZHENGTIRENQUNDESHOUJIAOYUCHENGDUYESHIYINGXIANGSHENGYULVDEGUANJIANYINSU。YIBANLAISHUO,SHOUJIAOYUSHUIPINGYUEGAO,SHENGYULVYUEDI。ZHEIGEXIANXIANGKEYIGUIWEILIANGDAYUANYIN。YIFANGMIAN,SHOUJIAOYUSHIJIANDEYANZHANG,SUODUANLENVXINGSHENGYUDESHIJIAN;LINGYIFANGMIAN,JIAOYUSHUIPINGDETIGAO,YEZENGJIALEJIATINGFUYANGHAIZIDEJIHUINAIZHISHIJICHENGBEN。

GENJU2010NIANRENKOUPUCHASHUJU,ZHONGGUOSHOUGUOXIAOXUE、CHUZHONG、GAOZHONGJIAOYUDENVXINGDEZONGHESHENGYULVFENBIEWEI1.6、1.35、0.91。TEBIESHI,ZHONGGUOSHOUGUODAXUEZHUANKE、BENKEJIAOYUNVXINGDEZONGHESHENGYULVFENBIEJINYOU0.83HE0.79,BUJINYUANDIYUOUMEIGAOXUELIRENQUNDESHENGYULV,YEDIYURIHANDEGAOXUELIRENQUNSHENGYULV。

XIANGDUIYU2.1DEGENGTISHUIPING,0.7DESHENGYULV,YIWEIZHEMEIDAIRENJIANSHAO2/3,XIAYIDAIRENZHIYOUSHANGYIDAIDE1/3,LIANGDAIRENHOUZHIYOU1/9。YEJIUSHISHUO,RUGUORENYOUZHEIZHONGSHUIPINGDESHENGYULVCHIXUXIAQU,ZHONGGUOJUEDADUOSHUCHENGSHIJUMINHEGAOXUELIRENKOUZAILIANGDAIRENHOUJIANGJUEHOU。

ZHONGGUOMUQIANDESHENGYULV,HENDACHENGDUHAISHIYIKAONONGCUNRENKOULAIZHICHENG。GENJU2010NIANRENKOUPUCHASHUJU,CHENGSHIZONGHESHENGYULVWEI0.88,ZHENDEZONGHESHENGYULVWEI1.15,NONGCUNZONGHESHENGYULVWEI1.44。XIANERYIJIAN,NONGCUNSHENGYULVYAOBICHENGSHIGAODEDUO。

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伯爵彩票APPCONGSHANGSHULIANGGEQUSHILAIKAN,RUGUOMEIYOUYOUXIAODEZHENGCECUOSHI,ZHONGGUOZONGTISHENGYULVJIHUHUIWUXUANNIANDIDIEZHIQUANSHIJIEZUIDIDESHUIPING。WOMENZHIQIANDEYIXILIEWENZHANGCENGLUNSHU,YANZHONGCHAODISHENGYULVHUIDAILAIRENKOULAOHUA、JINGJITINGZHI、GUOLISHUAITUI、CHUANGXINLIQUESHIDENGGEZHONGWENTI。ERWOMENZHEIPIANWENZHANG,CONGZHONGGUOCHENGSHIHUAHEJIAOYUSHUIPINGTISHENGDEJIAODULAISHENSHIZHEIGEWENTI,ZAICIHUYUDAJIAGUANZHUZHONGGUOCHAODISHENGYULVDEYANZHONGXING,QIDAIZHENGFUJINKUAICAIQUQIANGYOULIDEZHENGCECUOSHILAIYINGDUIZHEIYIZHONGDATIAOZHAN。

高育儿成本——吸附中国城市生育意愿的黑洞

CHENGSHIJUMINHEGAOXUELIRENQUNDECHAODISHENGYULV,WANQUANKEYICONGYUERCHENGBENDEJIAODULAIJIESHI。ZHONGGUODEYUERCHENGBENJIHUSHISHIJIEZUIGAODE,JUTITIXIANZAIYIXIAJIGEFANGMIAN:

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伯爵彩票APPDIER,XIANGDUIYUQITAGUOJIA,ZHONGGUODETUOERSUOQIQUE。SUOYI,RUGUOFUQISHUANGFANGZAIXIAOHAILIANGSANSUIQIANDOUBIXUCANYUGONGZUO,NEIMEBAIZAITAMENMIANQIANDEXUANXIANGTONGCHANGZHIYOULIANGGE:YISHIZHANGSHIJIANGUYONGBAOMU,ERSHIYOUJIAZHONGLAORENLAIBANGZHUKANHU。KESHINIANSHIYIGAODELAORENMEN,XIANZAIYIJINGYUELAIYUEBUYUANYIHUOZHESHUOMEIJINGLILAIBANGZHEDAIHAIZI,YOUQISHIERHAIGENGNANHUODELAIZIZUBEIDEBANGSHOU。SUOYIHENDUOFUMUZAIZIJIJIANCHIGONGZUODEQINGKUANGXIA,JIUZHINENGGUBAOMUHUOYUESAO。KEJINJINIAN,YUESAOGONGZIXINZIMENGZHANG,YUXIANGGANGDEFEIYONGXINZIXIANGCHAWUJI。

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直面人口黑洞——鼓励生育刻不容缓

WEILEXIAOCHUSHANGSHUYINSUDUIYUSHENGYULVDEFUMIANYINGXIANG,ZHONGGUOBIXUJINKUAITUICHUDALIGULISHENGYUDEZHENGCE,YIDAFUDUJIANGDIYUERCHENGBEN。ZHUYAOBAOKUORUXIACUOSHI:

1)SHISHICAIZHENGBUTIEZHENGCE,JIEJIANQITAGUOJIAJINGYAN,YONGGDPDE2%DAO5%LAIJIANGLISHENGYU,ZHEIXIANGDANGYU2WANYIDAO5WANYIDETOURULIDU。JUTIKEYITONGGUOXIANJINHETUISHUIDEFANGSHILAISHISHI。LIRU:DUIYUERHAI,MEIYUEFAFANG1000YUANXIANJINHUO2000YUANTUISHUI,DUIYUSANHAIJIATINGZEJIABEIJIANGLI。

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伯爵彩票APPYOUXUEZHERENWEI,DISHENGYULVZAISHIJIEFANWEINEIYOUQISHIFADAGUOJIADEPUBIANXIANXIANG,BUYONGTAIDANXIN。DUICI,WOMENBINGBURENKE。YOUQISHI,ZHONGGUODECHENGSHIJUMINHEGAOXUELIRENQUNDESHENGYULVBIQITAFADAGUOJIAHAIDIDEDUO,BIRIBENDI20-30%,BIOUMEIYAODI50%。RUCIDIMIDESHENGYULV,HUIXIANGHEIDONGYIYANGBUDUANTUNSHIZHONGGUODEFAZHANXIWANG。GENGZAOGAODESHI,DANGQITADISHENGYULVGUOJIAZAIQIANFANGBAIJIDIGULISHENGYUSHI,WOMENRENGWEICHEDIPAOQIXIANZHISHENGYUDEZHENGCE。

ZUIJINRIBENZHENGFUWEILEHUANJIEDISHENGYULVWEIJI,SHENZHIYIFANCHANGTAI,KAISHIKAOLVDAFUDUFANGKUANLEYIMINRIBENDEXIANDU。

JINGUANWOMENZHICHIYOUXIANDUDIXIYINGAOJISHUZHILEIDEYIMIN,DANBINGBURENWEIDAFUYINJINYIMINKEYIYINGDUIDISHENGYULVWEIJI。ZHEISHIYINWEIZHONGGUORENKOUJISHUPANGDA,HENNANXIANGXIANGYOUJUDADEWAILAIRENKOUKEYITIANBUZHONGGUORENKOUBENGTADEKULONG。YINCI,MIANDUIQUANQIUNEIZUIYANJUNDERENKOUXINGSHI,WOMENBIXULIZUGUONEI,ERQIELIKEXINGDONGQILAI。

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